Off to an 0-2 start and knowing that they hit the road after this, including a Halloween rematch at Memphis, we should see the best of the Kings this evening. Memphis big man Zach Edey is playing well but he's 0-2 in two h2h matchups with Sabonis. The Kings won the last meeting and the previous one was a 4-point win by the Grizzlies. (Sabonis didn't play in the first of those and Edey didn't play in the second.). Look for a desperate Sacramento team to elevate its game and they have a good chance to win outright.

Miami enters this matchup winless, but after facing the Raiders, 49ers, Chiefs, Vikings, and Bengals, this is easily its most favorable matchup of the season.

The Dolphins have had success against the Jets, winning 5 of the last 8 meetings and 12 of their last 18 trips to New York. With a difficult upcoming schedule, Miami desperately needs this victory.

Meanwhile, the Jets have struggled offensively, scoring no more than 24 points in any game this season. That's a tough team to trust laying more than a field goal, especially after barely covering against New England last week.

I expect a motivated Miami team to keep this close, with a legitimate chance to win outright.

The Broncos enter this matchup at 4-2 despite facing one of the tougher early schedules in the NFL. While Bo Nix and the Denver offense have drawn criticism for inconsistent production, much of that can be attributed to the quality of defenses they've faced. This week presents a much more favorable opportunity.

Arizona enters ranked 25th defensively and had allowed 30+ points in four consecutive losses before last week's victory over a struggling Rams team. With Sean Payton taking back play-calling duties, this is an excellent opportunity for Denver's offense to get rolling.

The Cardinals have also struggled to build momentum following victories, losing their next game after each of their previous three wins.

This is the biggest total on the board and it's risen from its opening number. While I'm well aware that Detroit games have been flying over the total, I still feel that it's a little too high. Since a high-scoring season opener, the Packers have seen their last five games all stay below 50 points. Four of those five, including each of the past three, have finished with 38 or fewer points. This is the Lions' first divisional game of the season. Five of their six division games last season, including each of the two vs GB, finished with 55 or fewer points. Last season's GB/Det O/U lines were set at 47.5. We're getting more than an extra touchdown to work with this season.

While Baker Mayfield is expected to return, I still feel that this line is generously high. Since a high-scoring season opener, Tampa has seen five straight games finish with 45 or fewer points. The Bucs are only one of four teams allowing fewer than 300 yards per game. The Panthers had an even higher-scoring season opener and that's dragging down their defensive stats. However, since then Carolina is allowing an average of just 16 points with three of four games finishing with fewer than 40 points. Last season's games both finished below 44 and I expect the one to do the same.

Buy to 2.5, likely will be at this number by kickoff with Chiefs money coming in.

9.5 available on FanDuel.

This line looks inflated by Iowa's 41-3 win last season, a misleading result that included two non-offensive touchdowns despite the Hawkeyes producing just 274 total yards. Iowa closed as a 7.5-point home favorite in that matchup, yet we're getting the same number with the venue flipped to Minnesota. Iowa's offense improved last week, but quarterback Jeremy Hecklinski is making just his second career start and first on the road. Minnesota has a capable passer in Drake Lindsey, averaging 222.5 yards per game with nine touchdowns, giving the Gophers an opportunity to challenge Iowa's defense through the air. Both teams are rested off a bye, and Minnesota should be motivated to respond at home following its loss to Purdue. Also, Minnesota is 9-1 ATS since the 2024 season after covering the spread in 2 of their last 3 games, covering the spread by an average of 6.9 points per game!

The Volunteers are off a very impressive win over Alabama. As much as head coach Josh Heupel says otherwise, in what will be a hostile environment, I feel that the Vols are in for at least a small letdown. That'll prove costly. The Gamecocks are playing at home and they're coming off a bye. Prior to the bye, they smashed Florida. The Vols have a potent rushing attack but the Gamecocks have been excellent at stopping the run. The home team has won the past two meetings in the series, the Gamecocks winning 63-38 the last meeting here. This one will likely be much closer but I expect the end result to remain the same.

Dating back to 2019, the Under is 10-0 after Game 2 of a series when a team wins by 20+ points.

The trend continues when looking at playoff road teams. Dating back to 2013, playoff road teams are 8-0 to the Under after losing by 26+ points. After getting embarrassed, teams either respond with pride and lock in defensively or struggle to find any offensive rhythm.

There’s another strong angle pointing toward regression. Dating back to 2011, the Under is 11-3 after Game 2 of a series when both teams shoot 40% or better from three in the previous game. After both teams find that kind of success from deep, regression is a factor to consider in Game 4.

The biggest factor is that these are the two best defensive teams in the league this season. With elite defenses on both sides, the potential for shooting regression and a stronger defensive response makes the Under even more appealing.

The Badgers are allowing just 16.7 points and 286.7 yards per game, and last week held a UCLA rushing attack averaging 253 yards per game to just 120. That defense now faces a USC team in a difficult spot, with its biggest game of the season against Ohio State on deck. Offensively, Wisconsin should find opportunities against a USC defense ranked just 106th nationally that has struggled against both the run and mobile quarterbacks. The return of leading rusher Abu Sama III, averaging 6.6 yards per carry, provides another boost, while dual-threat quarterback Colton Joseph gives Wisconsin multiple ways to attack. USC has the passing advantage behind Jayden Maiava, but Wisconsin's defensive strength, home-field advantage, and favorable scheduling spot make the Badgers a strong candidate to win outright.

Two Key Trends: 1) USC is 1-14 ATS since the 2023 season when off back-to-back wins, failing to cover the spread by an average of 9 points per game! That includes 0-8 ATS on the road, failing to cover the spread by an average of 12.2 points per game! 2) USC is 1-8 ATS since the 2024 season in road or neutral-site games after forcing no more than 1 turnover in their last game, failing to cover the spread by an average of 5.1 points per game.

7.5 available on FanDuel. Auburn presents a difficult matchup for an LSU team that has looked considerably more vulnerable away from Baton Rouge. While the Tigers have piled up impressive margins at home, LSU is 0-2 on the road this season, falling to Ole Miss and Kentucky. Quarterback Sam Leavitt has also struggled with turnovers, throwing an interception in every game before last week's win over Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Auburn is gaining momentum following an impressive upset at Georgia, fueled by another strong performance from DJ Durkin's defense. Offensively, Alex Golesh's system is beginning to find its rhythm, with dual-threat quarterback Byrum Brown rushing for over 100 yards in each of his last two games. Auburn's defensive toughness, improving offensive execution, and home-field advantage should make this a competitive SEC battle.

Tampa Bay enters this matchup playing some of its best hockey of the season, riding a three-game winning streak while scoring 14 goals during that stretch. The Lightning have now won seven of their last eight games and opened their Western Conference road trip with an impressive 6-2 victory over Vegas. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been sharp in net, stopping 32 of 34 shots against the Golden Knights, while Nikita Kucherov continues to lead the offensive attack after a three-point performance. Brandon Hagel has also been a major contributor with seven goals already this season. Meanwhile, Colorado returns home following consecutive road losses to Philadelphia and New Jersey, having won just two of its last six games.

New Orleans heads to Utah looking to bounce back after a hard-fought 123-120 loss to Indiana on Wednesday. Despite the defeat, the Pelicans showed plenty of offensive promise, and this is a matchup they've consistently dominated. New Orleans has scored at least 123 points in six of its last eight meetings with Utah and has won eight straight against the Jazz. Defensively, the Pelicans held Indiana to 30% shooting from beyond the arc, and a similar effort could create problems for Utah. The Jazz are coming off an ugly 20-point loss to Memphis, with offensive inconsistency and defensive struggles already evident. With several new faces and young players still developing chemistry, Utah could need time to find its rhythm. New Orleans has the offensive firepower and favorable matchup history to take advantage.

Here's a quote from Coach Udoka of the Rocket's, "The quicker the better. The pace that we want to play at, it's advantageous for us and we really emphasize getting out and running, kick-aheads, and taking the first quality shot. And so, last year we were really good at it when we did in the first 6 seconds; and we were worst in the league in the last 6 seconds and we had a lot of late shot clock possessions. And so, we want to increase the pace and hunt those shots and find some mismatches. The numbers show, the earlier in the clock we play, the better we've been."

Also, the Spurs are off a poor shooting performance so positive regression is expected.

I expect the Knights to have a difficult time on the road against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane beat the Knights 26-25 last season and they had a 497-311 edge in total yards. This is a stronger and more experienced Tulsa team which brought back a lot of returning starters from that win. The Golden Hurricane have just faced b2b opponents which have somewhat similar rushing attacks to Army's and that should work in their favor. Off a convincing 38-17 win last week, I think Tulsa makes it two in a row.

Currently available on FanDuel, the line is moving.

MLB teams coming into a series with 3 days of rest or more fit a 100% (20-0) Playoffs angle, including a 100% perfect (6-0) record in the World Series. In Game 1 of a series, play Over the total when both teams come in on extended rest. Our play-on home team must also average 4 runs per game or more on their home field. Both teams must also own a 45% or greater Over win rate. Overall, these teams own a strong average Over margin of +4.4 runs per game in this exact situational spot.

Nashville enters this matchup in a favorable scheduling spot, coming off three consecutive home games and four full days of rest. The Predators should be fresh and well-prepared against a Boston team returning from a lengthy four-game West Coast road trip. Nashville has also been disciplined defensively, allowing just four power-play goals all season and never surrendering more than one in a single game. That could prove important against a Bruins power play that has scored in only two games this season. Boston returns home after winning three of four on the road, but the travel and potential letdown following a successful trip create an appealing opportunity for Nashville. The Predators have also played Boston competitively in recent seasons, making the underdog price particularly attractive.

Denver presents an appealing underdog opportunity against an Oklahoma City team facing a historically unfavorable situation. Since 2003, home favorites coming off a road victory in their season opener have gone just 29-47-1 ATS (38%), including 11-15-1 in the last 10 years. The Nuggets have also consistently competed well against the Thunder, covering three of their four meetings last season despite Aaron Gordon appearing in just one of those contests. With a generous 8.5 points and a history of competitive performances against OKC, I like the Nuggets to stay within the number.

Philadelphia made an impressive opening-night statement, knocking off the defending champion Knicks at Madison Square Garden and showing that its revamped roster may come together quicker than expected. With LeBron James and Jaylen Brown joining Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, the Sixers possess one of the league's most talented lineups. Maxey led the way with 28 points against New York, highlighting Philadelphia's offensive firepower. While staying healthy remains a concern, the Sixers have already demonstrated their potential against elite competition. Meanwhile, Cleveland enters its season opener with questions surrounding its bench depth following the offseason acquisition of Peyton Watson. With Philadelphia already finding its rhythm and Cleveland still looking to establish its rotations, I like the Sixers to build on their opening-night momentum.

Buy 1 point at 50.5. Both teams have reasons to lean on a more conservative, clock-controlling approach. New England enters with a banged-up offensive line and will be without receiver Romeo Doubs, potentially limiting its offensive efficiency and putting additional pressure on the Patriots' defense. Meanwhile, Chicago boasts the league's top-ranked rushing attack and should continue leaning heavily on the ground game, sustaining drives while keeping the clock moving. With both teams likely emphasizing ball control, possessions and scoring opportunities could be limited. Their last meeting in 2024 produced just 22 combined points in a 19-3 New England victory. While both teams have changed since then, the current total feels inflated given the matchup dynamics. I expect a more controlled, lower-scoring contest that stays Under the number.

The Pirates' 13-point overtime loss to UAB was much closer than the final score suggests, as ECU controlled possession and held a fourth-quarter lead before allowing 13 points in overtime. Prior to that setback, East Carolina had won three straight, and Alabama remains the only opponent to beat the Pirates by more than three points in regulation. Meanwhile, Memphis quarterback Marcus Stokes has struggled recently, completing just 53.4% of his passes over the last two games while taking eight sacks and committing multiple turnovers. East Carolina has won the last three meetings and I expect another competitive matchup in this one tonight.

The Timberwolves have dominated this matchup, winning 11 of the last 14 meetings, including five of their last seven trips to Miami. Meanwhile, Bam Adebayo is returning from a groin injury and may not be at full strength, while Giannis Antetokounmpo will be making his regular-season debut with the Heat. Although Giannis is a tremendous addition, developing chemistry and adjusting to a new offensive system takes time. With Minnesota's consistent success against Miami and the Heat facing potential early-season growing pains, I like the Timberwolves to keep this close and cover the spread, with a strong chance to win outright.

9.5 available now on FanDuel.

While the Dream have been stronger at home this season, the Valkyries have performed just as consistently on the road as they have in their own building, making the Atlanta crowd less of a concern. The Dream's 14-point victory in Game 2 was heavily influenced by a significant free-throw disparity, with Atlanta attempting 35 free throws compared to just 19 for Golden State. That advantage isn't something Atlanta can necessarily count on repeating. Turnovers were another major factor, as the Dream generated 24 points off 19 Golden State turnovers. However, the Valkyries entered the playoffs with the league's second-lowest turnover rate, suggesting that performance was an outlier rather than the norm.

This matchup features two struggling offenses that have consistently played in lower-scoring games, making the first-half Under particularly appealing. New Mexico State is 1-4 to the Under against FBS opponents. On the road, New Mexico State is a perfect 3-0 to the Under, with those totals staying below the number by a combined 27 points. The Aggies have also run just 60 and 58 offensive plays in their last two games, limiting scoring opportunities. Sam Houston has shown similar tendencies, going 4-1 to the Under against FBS competition while scoring just 14, 3, and 3 points over its last three games. The Bearkats have managed only 269, 243, and 177 yards during that stretch, while running just 59 and 57 plays in their last two contests. With both offenses struggling to sustain drives, limited offensive tempo, and consistent Under trends, I expect a slow-paced, defensive first half that stays below 22.5 points.

Atlanta presents an appealing underdog opportunity against an Orlando team that has struggled in this matchup. The Hawks enjoyed a strong 2025 season before running into the Knicks in the playoffs, and they return with an offense capable of creating significant problems for the Magic. Atlanta scored at least 124 points in three of four meetings against Orlando last season while holding the Magic to 112 points or fewer in all four contests. That matchup advantage is reflected in Atlanta's 7-3 record against Orlando over their last 10 meetings. While the Magic remain a talented Eastern Conference team, their offense needs more consistent production beyond its two primary scoring options. Orlando is also adjusting to a new defensive system under Sean Sweeney, which could create early-season communication and chemistry issues against Atlanta's offensive attack.

This total opened at 6 and has already moved down to 5.5, reflecting a matchup that favors a lower-scoring game. Ottawa's offense has struggled considerably, averaging just 2.44 goals per game on approximately 23 shots, while converting only 12.8% of its power-play opportunities. The Senators managed just one goal on 26 shots against Philadelphia in their previous outing, and their offensive limitations continue to force them into tight, low-scoring contests. Fortunately, Linus Ullmark has been outstanding in net, posting a 6-1-0 record, 1.33 GAA, and .945 save percentage. Florida enters on a three-game winning streak, but now begins a four-game road trip without key offensive contributors Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand. The Panthers also allow just 24 shots per game, limiting Ottawa's opportunities to generate offense. With Ullmark playing at an elite level, Ottawa struggling to score, and Florida facing a tougher road environment, I expect a tightly contested matchup.